Worldwide Backbone Capacity Running Out?

By Greg McNevin

November 22, 2007: A new study by the Nemertes Research Group claims that the Internet could run out of capacity in as little as two years if substantial investments in infrastructure are not made.

The study claims to be the first to “apply Moore’s Law (or something very like it) to the pace of application innovation on the ‘Net,” and says that due to the rapid rise of video, VoIP and other data intensive applications the “series of tubes” Al Gore once famously described the Internet as, is in danger of a glut of data and “brownouts”.

Nemertes says that backbone providers need to spend US$137 (AU$154.4) billion to upgrade infrastructure capacity enough to handle the deluge, however, this is more than twice the investment planned.

“Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years,” reads the report.

Titled “The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web”, Nemertes’ study is an independent look at the issue, and is based on sources such as user data demands, Internet traffic statistics, interviews with enterprises, equipment vendors, IT executives, service providers and more.

Further to these sources too, the firm studied user demand and Internet infrastructure separately to give it an idea on how demand would change if capacity was not a part of the equation. Nemertes says this has helped it take into account “the next big thing” should it come along. That said, however, the firm is sceptical that its predictions may not be enough should another revolutionary application appear.

“It’s important to note that even if we make the investment necessary between now and 2010, we still might not be prepared for the next killer application or new Internet-dependent business like Google or YouTube,” said Larry Irving, co-chairman of the Internet Innovation Alliance. “The Nemertes study is evidence the exaflood is coming.”

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