The future of Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is a subject of intense debate in the tech industry, with venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (aka a16z) declaring "RIP to RPA" while market researchers project continued growth in the sector. 

A recent analysis by a16z partner Kimberly Tan argues that traditional RPA has failed to deliver on its promise of true automation for "operations work”, which can range from range from full-time data entry and front desk roles, to routine operational tasks embedded in every other role .  

"Operations work is sprawling and diverse, including tasks like data entry, document extraction, information transfer, system migrations, and web scraping. These tasks are essential, but they often lack the APIs or direct integrations required for traditional software to manage them efficiently. Despite the shift toward software eating the world, tons of work is still done over phone calls, spreadsheets, fax lines, and paper forms," Tan writes. 

“Over the last decade, RPA became a buzzword for automating this type of work. Companies like UiPath, which was founded in 2005, promised to enable the “fully automated enterprise” and empower “workers through automation.” But despite its IPO in 2021 and its current valuation, these last-generation RPA companies couldn’t fulfill the promise of true automation. The technology at the time just wasn’t advanced enough.” 

According to Tan, the limitations of traditional RPA lie in its rigid approach. Instead of providing genuine automation, these solutions merely "mimicked the exact keystrokes and clicks that a human would make," requiring expensive consultants for implementation and struggling when processes changed. 

However, analyst firm The Insight Partners paints a markedly different picture in their latest market research. Their report projects the RPA market to reach US6.51 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 9.0% from 2022 to 2030. The firm cites significant adoption across various sectors, particularly in healthcare, where RPA continues to demonstrate value in "automating recurring tasks such as data management, administrative duties, claims management, and staffing." 

The apparent contradiction might be explained by the emergence of what a16z terms "intelligent automation." Tan suggests that while traditional RPA may be declining, the underlying need for automation is being transformed by AI and Large Language Models (LLMs).  

"With LLMs, however, we believe the original vision of RPA is now possible," she explains. "Instead of hard-coding each deterministic step in a process, AI agents will instead be prompted with an end goal." 

This evolution is particularly evident in the healthcare sector, where both reports find common ground. The Insight Partners highlights how RPA "plays a crucial role in managing and analyzing data... generating valuable insights and tailored analytics for each patient." Similarly, a16z points to companies like Tennr, which has automated healthcare referral management using LLMs to extract unstructured data from PDFs and faxes. 

The market appears to be at an inflection point where traditional RPA is being augmented or replaced by AI-powered solutions. While The Insight Partners' research suggests continued growth in the broader automation market, a16z's analysis indicates this growth may increasingly shift toward more intelligent, AI-driven solutions that fulfill RPA's original promise of true automation. 

In the words of Tan, "We believe a number of large companies will be built here – both in the horizontal enabling layer and in the verticalized end-to-end solution for customers in different industries."  

Meanwhile, The Insight Partners notes that "advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies... enable the bots to learn and adapt to changing circumstances, making them more intelligent and capable of handling complex tasks."